In electrical engineering, computer science, statistical computing and bioinformatics, the Baum–Welch algorithm is used to find the unknown parameters of a hidden Markov model (HMM). It makes use of the forward-backward algorithm and is named for Leonard E. Baum and Lloyd R. Welch.
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The Baum–Welch algorithm is a particular case of a generalized expectation-maximization (GEM) algorithm. It can compute maximum likelihood estimates and posterior mode estimates for the parameters (transition and emission probabilities) of an HMM, when given only emissions as training data.
For a given cell in the transition matrix, all paths to that cell are summed. There is a link (transition from that cell to a cell ). The joint probability of , the link, and can be calculated and normalized by the probability of the entire string. Call this .
Now, calculate the probability of all paths with all links emanating from . Normalize this by the probability of the entire string. Call this .
Now divide by . This is dividing the expected transition from to by the expected transitions from . As the corpus grows, and particular transitions are reinforced, they will increase in value, reaching a local maximum. No way to ascertain a global maximum is known.
The algorithm was introduced in the paper:
The Shannon Lecture by Welch, which speaks to how the algorithm can be implemented efficiently:
The path-counting algorithm, an alternative to the Baum–Welch algorithm: